Cultocracy note :
The UK based Development Concepts and Doctrine Centre (DCDC) describes itself as an ‘independent think tank’ for the UK Ministry of Defence (MoD) . The DCDC has produced several documents outlining future warfare concepts and is thought to be partly responsible for shaping the development of UK defence policy and foreign policy , the two are closely connected .
This article will include excerpts from the most recent of the papers produced by the DCDC which is titled ‘Global Strategic Trends The Future Starts Today’ .
A more appropriate title would be ‘The future Is Now’ .
The document outlines the future of the Earth from a defence & security perspective . Globalization is a hot topic which in the past simply meant the capture of global resources , finance and industry . In an increasingly multipolar world globalization is now viewed as a potential enemy .
In some respects the document paints a picture of a dystopian future in which the power of the state is gradually eroded to be replaced with a myriad of non-state ‘actors’ . A merger is proposed between the state and non-state actors , wherever this is mutually beneficial to both parties .
Increasing competition for scarce resources will lead to hybrid warfare in which guns and bombs will become obsolete , except as tools of terror in the hands of ‘non-state actors’ . The electromagnetic , information and cyber realms will dominate , all coordinated via artificial intelligence . Also mentioned are ‘personalised biological weapons’ , these are being tested and trialled right now .
Also apparent is the fear that one country may dominate the new arms race , as such the new global battlefield will be defined in space . Parallel to the silent war is the information war , which can be thought of as a war for your very soul .
Advancements in biotechnology and nanotechnlogy will shape the future , there is a recognition that already non-existent ethics will be discarded in the development of new technologies . A limited role will be played by humans themselves , where necessary human roles will be staffed by enhanced and augmented ‘super humans’ . The lines between man and machine will become increasingly blurred , in some cases they are already blurred .
The coming of a new religion is cited , possibly transhumanism . A new global currency is mentioned . New theatres of conflict are proposed .
The Arctic regions are increasingly viewed as the last pot of gold on Earth , the document does mention ‘global warming’ on multiple occasions . Global warming will prove to be extremely convenient if you would wish to pillage the Arctic regions .
Existing power structures will see a geographical switch to contain rising powers , Oceania is seen as pivotal in containing emergent powers such as China . Conveniently Australia and New Zealand are also very close to the Antarctic region .
State surveillance and control of the cyber world is seen as a necessity , the document reveals an increasingly desperate need to control the flow of information , purely for our own protection we are led to believe . Potential new areas of conflict will be fought using ‘augmented and virtual technology’ .
The UN and other global bodies are seen by the controllers as power structures that may be strengthened . Global organizations which were once a tool for wealthier nations to impose their will on poorer nations may see a shift in power . There is also a recognition that global organizations may be increasingly ignored .
A general theme throughout the document is how we ourselves will also be increasingly ignored , but then again aren’t we always . The individual is now seen as a commodity , if not to be harnessed , then subjugated and controlled . The apparent threat is distorted so as to be seen as coming from the outside world , therefore we need to be controlled and ‘saved’ from the outside threats .
Technology is being constantly leveraged as the tool of control .
As always , as ever , the keyword is control .
The real war is a war for your mind .
The document is a little disjointed and a little long .
A few excerpts from the document are included in this article , I have added a few images myself to further expand on the topics covered .
Global Strategic Trends
The Future Starts Today
Cultocracy note :
Business as usual for the Five Eyes syndicate .
I found this sentence quite revealing :
“Emergence of a new communication tool which enables the creation of defensible sovereign cyber territory.”
I wonder what they could mean by ‘new communication tool’ ?
States recognise the need to regulate the information environment and collaborate to protect citizens .
The information environment is critical for both communications and economic prosperity. As a consequence, states place a particular emphasis on the security and control of the information environment, partly to prevent external interference.
Societies are less diverse and cohesion is achieved by the common perception of a threat.
Expenditure on defence and security-related innovation is proportionally high and, as a result, technological development is focused mainly on security-related applications.
Due to the competitive security environment, innovation is less constrained by ethical concerns.
Organised crime is used by blocs as an instrument of hybrid and covert interference, with the aim of exploiting vulnerabilities and undermining opposing actors.
The disempowerment of multilateral institutions prevents the development of international legal frameworks for new weapons, such as electromagnetic pulse weapons or personalised biological weapons.
In general, people are treated as consumers rather than citizens.
Most successful societies comprise people from many different origins. Despite
this, there is a seller’s market for loyalty and identity, which is led by non-state actors, including megacities and corporations.
Gene editing could lead to significant improvements in medicine, but also enable rogue actors to develop deadly biological weapons. In addition, the technique may, in future, allow DNA to be modified so that selected traits can be enhanced, potentially giving people extraordinary abilities.
Although the technical barriers are formidable, by 2050, brain-to-computer interfaces may allow people to augment their mental abilities with automatic access to the memory and processing power of computers.
As the volume of information increases and people get more of their information from social media (as well as advances in mixed reality technology), it may become harder to tell what stories are real, potentially making people easier to manipulate. The relatively light regulation of the Internet in the West may mean it is especially vulnerable to external manipulation.
Emergence of a new communication tool which enables the creation of defensible sovereign cyber territory.
Human Machine Interaction
The next major development in automation, which is expected in the coming decades, is likely to be ‘augmented intelligence’, where humans and machines collaborate to make decisions. This will significantly affect how we work in the coming years, favouring those with skills such as emotional intelligence, creativity, persuasion and innovation. Many researchers believe that ‘autonomous intelligence’ (where machines think for and act by themselves) will be developed by 2050.
While artificial intelligence is likely to bring many benefits, there are risks to embracing the technology. The effect of artificial intelligence on jobs may be disruptive, at least in the short term, and it could be used maliciously by rogue actors.
Global life expectancy has increased at a rate of more than three years
per decade since the 1950s.
Recently, however, research has identified ways to significantly extend the
lives of simple animals, such as worms. While formidable obstacles remain, it is plausible that by 2050 these techniques could extend human lives by many years, at least for those who can afford it.
Governance and law
Cultocracy note :
Cooperation between existing power structures is envisioned where it will help all parties to maintain the status quo , no doubt this is happening at present . A possible deal between East & West is posited , the Western syndicate is now facing up to the possibility of a global power sharing system .
There is also an increasing reliance on subcontracted organizations to perform politically motivated operations . The groups can be manufactured on an ‘off the shelf’ basis and be of any particular flavor or color . This allows state organizations plausible deniability .
Fabricated ‘Nazi-mercenary-terror-crime’ outfits or similar can be tailored and tuned for a wide variety of roles .
Not to mention the fact that the contractors themselves are often ‘Nazi-mercenary-terror-crime’ outfits .
Would you like a red I$I$ sir , or a blue I$I$ ?
The high speed of technological advances, driven by corporations and their economic interests, and their potential for weaponisation, creates a challenging environment for international law.
Organisations such as the United Nations and the World Trade Organization are strengthened .
However, a divide exists in this world between elites who orchestrate the multilateral institutions and those who perceive themselves as powerless.
Organised crime cannot be addressed without global cooperation. It is spreading and increasing its role in all illicit activities where money can be earned. Conversely, the monopoly on law enforcement of many states is eroded.
As the economic power of Asia increases, the political power of China (and to a lesser extent India) will grow, potentially rivalling that of the United States (US), and while Russia and Europe are likely to remain important political actors, their influence is likely to diminish.
An increasingly powerful China is likely to adopt a more authoritative and assertive stance on the world stage, whilst Europe, Russia and the US might find it difficult to accept their relative decline.
In 2017, transnational crime was estimated to have generated between US $1.6-2.6 trillion of illicit profit, threatening peace and security, and undermining the economic, social, cultural and political development of societies around the world.
Organised crime will probably continue to influence local, national and (in some cases) international governance.
Organised crime (or state actions disguised as such) will continue to be used as an instrument in hybrid or covert warfare.
Technology will play a growing role in surveillance and policing. Facial recognition technology could monitor a suspect’s every move in public, and the use of algorithms may predict some kinds of criminal activity before it occurs.
Conflict and Security
Cultocracy note :
There is an increasing fear that multi-national defence contractors , backed up by private security contractors , are becoming autonomous power structures . They are able to influence and indeed even formulate foreign policy .
War = Profit , geopolitics is increasingly overlooked by the military industrial complex .
The military and intelligence complex , just like most other Western organizations , is moving into private hands . Mercenary gangs are now private mercenary armies , under private control , unaccountable and invisible , no more irritating casualty lists being reported in the media .
To confuse the issue many military and intelligence figures and their paymasters are deeply embedded within the MIC . These figures have a disproportionate influence on the political system of their particular ‘bloc’
‘Weapons of mass effect’ = EM weaponry = ‘New communication tool’
States seek to reduce the risk of proliferation whilst corporations seek to protect their share of sales in the small defence market.
The boundary between war and peace will become blurred and actors will,
increasingly, use a hybrid approach to warfare, going beyond military and economic activities and opening-up new arenas of conflict, including in cyberspace, augmented and virtual reality .
Weapon systems such as rail guns, directed energy weapons (DEW) and hypersonic
missiles will allow possessors to strike rapidly, practically anywhere in the world. As machines and artificial intelligence become more capable, they will play an increasing role in conflict and combat. Technology will continue to change the character of conflict, and possibly its nature.
Citizens may increasingly seek allegiance to forms of authority beyond the nation state .
The arms control system will be further challenged by future weapons and weapon
manufacturing technologies. It is plausible, given advances in technology and the availability of information, that states will be able to construct a new nuclear weapon with such a high degree of assurance that they will not need to conduct a confirmatory detonation. Without a detonation, and hence a seismic signature, the capability is likely to remain covert .
The advantages of using private security companies are likely to endure, and possibly increase, meaning that they could be an increasingly important feature of future conflicts .
Actors with the best sensors, data and algorithms will probably be able to identify the positions of combatants and non-combatants with a high degree of accuracy and thus achieve an important competitive advantage .
Historians will be the judges, but it is plausible that by 2050 (or perhaps before) automation and artificial intelligence will have altered not just the character, but the very nature of war .
New weapons of mass effect are developed and proliferated within blocs.
Environment and Resources
Cultocracy note :
Although the document recognizes the need for the preservation of the natural environment , this will be steam rollered by the increasing need for technological supremacy .
Sustainability serves a dual purpose in that it can be used as a tool to prevent emergent rival powers from attaining the same technological level as Western powers .
There is a general consensus that the ‘useless eaters’ , i.e. you and me , should be educated to switch to a more vegetarian diet , no doubt GM .
Future policies may also focus on the need to wean populations away from technology , the resources are required for security and defence applications which are seen as an imperative in global power play . Something of a contradiction as personal technology is also seen as a useful method of control .
The gradual withdrawal from technology and consumerism may be implemented if and only if the syndicate starts to lose the information war to rival power structures and large tech corporations .
Cooperation also includes protection of the natural environment, including biodiversity .
Access to mineral resources is regulated to ensure fair competition and access rights, which benefits local populations.
Graphene nanocoating could help improve battery efficiency. Graphene flakes
could be used to produce incredibly lightweight construction material, possibly
reducing the energy needed for building materials. Hexagonal boron nitride
has already been combined with graphene to improve lithium-ion batteries and
supercapacitors, suggesting further improvements as the technology matures.
Although the use of these substances can deliver significant benefits, their effects on health and habitats are not well understood.
The amount of waste nanomaterials accumulating in the environment is, therefore, almost certainly increasing, yet the impact is unknown.
The Arctic & Antarctic
The Antarctic is the most inhospitable continent on Earth and plays a crucial role in its climate. It holds 90% of the world’s freshwater .
The Antarctic Treaty System is due for renewal in 2048 and, while it is expected to be renewed, it may come under increasing pressure. Should it unravel, a scramble for the Antarctic could follow .
By 2050, the Arctic could be a major supplier of oil and gas and, as its waters warm, an increasingly important fishing ground.
There should be no doubt that near space holds the key to eventual supremacy on the global stage . Space based sensor and surveillance satellites are seen as essential tools .
Closely aligned with the battle for space is the creation of synthetic or modified human life forms , able to operate in adverse environments such as space .
The technology will need to be trialled and tested .
AI is seen as the glue that binds everything together .
The global commons, particularly space, are heavily contested.
Technological change is mainly driven by private corporations and shared with the cities that host them. Due to the high likelihood of conflict, the focus is mainly on technology relevant to security.
As the number of systems dependent on space-based capabilities increases, both developed and developing countries will become increasingly reliant upon them and so too will their vulnerability to disruption.
….systems are likely to be developed for more complex tasks, for example, to mine asteroids or build structures on the Moon or further afield.
Blocs drive weaponisation of space .
Regulation of new technologies
The development of new technologies could pose challenging ethical questions.
For example, technologies could be developed that substantially boost physical and cognitive capabilities .
Advancements in fields such as genetic engineering, artificial intelligence and creating synthetic life forms will pose moral questions where an international consensus could be difficult to obtain, particularly if sentient (conscious) intelligence is developed .
Information and Politics
Cultocracy note :
A rigged game , no change there then .
The state, nationalism and politics
The rise of new political movements (such as those based around populism and nationalism) will probably also challenge existing regimes. Although the next 30 years are very unlikely to see the end of the state system, it may signal the erosion of state sovereignty.
As the amount of information being produced and disseminated grows, information technology will become an increasingly important political tool. The availability of real-time user analysis to measure trends in public opinion might also allow state and non-state actors to manipulate or control political views and voting behaviour.
Cultocracy note :
To conclude this article and to understand what the future may hold I suggest you read the following paragraphs from the document .
Understanding human enhancement
Human enhancement technologies, including gene editing, physical and cognitive prosthesis, and pharmaceutical enhancement, are nascent now and their development over the next 30 years is likely to offer profound expansion of the boundaries of human performance.
Harnessing artificial intelligence
As more devices and people are connected through the Internet, the volume and variety of data created and the speed at which it is gathered and analysed will increase.
It could challenge traditional notions of work, and maybe even human purpose.